iM Update -March 13, 2020

Market Signals Summary:

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index is out of the market since 3/5/2020, the other US  macro models remain in the stock market as well as the australian  MAC-AU. The recession indicators iM-LLI and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve is flattening and a buy FLAT was generated 2/21/2020 and the BVR reached a new record high on 3/5/2020. The Gold Coppock and iM-Gold Timer remains invested in gold, however the silver model is in cash.

The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched out of the markets on 3/5/2020.

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model switched into the markets on 2/26/2019. The sell-spread (red line) is below last week’s value and needs to move below zero to generate a sell signal.

 

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 at -4.97% is below last week’s level of 4.35%, and is out of the stock market since 3/5/2020. Also, on 3/12/2020 462  stocks of the S&P 500 registered a new 3-month low, a level not seen since 1999.

 

 

 

The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered  the market on 5/9/2019 and is invested.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

The MAC-AU model is invested in the markets. The sell-spread (red line) is below last week’s value and needs to move below zero to generate a sell signal.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

The current level of iM-LLI is at plus 5.43 and is above last week’s 5.02, hence this indicator signals that a recession is unlikely to begin during the next 8 months. The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is not reflected in this series.

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg below last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled . The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is not reflected in this series.

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is above last week’s level and is not signaling a recession.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer is back in the markets since 1/22/2019.

A description of this indicator can be found here.