iM Update – November 16, 2018

Market Signals Summary:          

The MAC-US model is invested, but will signal a sell early next week.    The “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” generated a sell signal on 10/17/2018 and is in cash. The monthly updated S&P500 Coppock indicator is also invested.  The MAC-AU has signaled a sell on 11/20/2018.  The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.  The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the  yield curve is flattening and signaled  buy FLAT end March 2018. Both the  gold Coppock model and the iM-Gold Timer are invested in gold, however the silver model is in cash since early August 2018.

The monthly iM-GT-Timer, which is based on Google trends, has switched to cash on November 1, 2018.

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is below last week’s level and simulations show it will fall below zero early next week, thus signaling a sell. 

 

 

The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500  is  below last week’s level at -6.70% (last week -5.74%), generated the sell signal on 10/17/2018 and is in cash.

 

 

 

The MAC-AU model is in cash after it generated a sell signal on November 20, 2018. The sell-spread is below last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell. This model could possibly signal a sell next week.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Figure 3 shows the COMP down from last week’s  level. No recession is indicated.    COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg   below last week’s level. An imminent recession is not signaled .

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is at last week’s level and is not signaling a recession.  The FRR2-10 general trend is downwards.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer is invested in the markets.

A description of this indicator can be found here.