iM Update – May 15, 2015

Market Signals Summary:

The IBH stock market generating a Buy-C signal this week. The MAC stock market model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is up from last week’s level, and iM-BCIg is near last week’s level.  MAC-AU is invested in the stock market. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield spread has formed a trough and last week a buy STPP signal was generated, both the gold and silver model are invested.

 

Stock-markets:

This week the IBH-model  generated a Buy-C signal, which relies only on the long and short EMAs of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index’s growth rate.   The IBH-model is described here and the latest rules can be found here .

 

 

The MAC-US model stays invested. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages. The sell-spread is up from last week’s level. A sell signals is not imminent. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal

 

 

The MAC-AU model is in the market. A buy signal was generated early in Jan-2015. The sell-spread is lower than  last week’s level. A sell signal will only be generated when the sell-spread (red graph) moves from above to below zero.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

Figure 3 shows COMP up from last week’s  level, and far away from signaling recession.    COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

Figure 3.1 shows the recession indicator iM-BCIg is down from last week’s level. A recession is not imminent.

Please also refer to the BCI page