Market Signals Summary:
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index is out of the market since 3/5/2020 and the MAC US and the MAC AU are out of the markets since 3/26/2020. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, and the yield curve is steepening. The Gold Coppock remains in gold but the iM-Gold Timer is in cash. The Silver Coppock model is invested in silver.
The BCI, the iM-LLI and the iM-Unemployment models all signal a recession warning.
The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume switched out of the markets on 3/5/2020.
Stock-markets:
The MAC-US model switched out of the markets on 3/26/2020. The buy-spread (green line) is rising but far from signalling a buy.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 at +2.66% is above last week’s +1.33%, and is out of the stock market since 3/5/2020.
The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered the market on 5/9/2019 and is invested. This indicator is described here.
The MAC-AU model switch out of the markets on 3/27/2020. The buy-spread (green line) is rising, but far from signalling a buy.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:
iM-LLI withdrawn as significant backward revisions in the Fed’s BBK data series make this series unreliable for predictions on past performance
BCIg Temporarily withdrawn
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is above last week’s level. It is rising steeply, typically seen at a start of a recession.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched out of stocks on 4/3/2020.
A description of this indicator can be found here.
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