Bond-market:
The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds) and also intermediate duration bonds.
The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 4. The BVR is above last week’s level and is at a new record high. According to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.
The Yield Curve:
The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2) continues to flatten significantly after the buy FLAT signal of 8/7/2019. FLAT and STPP are ETNs; STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens. This model confirms the direction of the BVR.
Gold:
The modified Coppock Gold indicator shown in Fig 6. This model generated a new buy signal end March 2019 and is invested in gold.
This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….
The iM GOLD-TIMER Rev-1 sold gold on 12/31/2018 and the model is in cash
Silver:
The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7. This model generated a sell signal early August 2018 and is in cash.
This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver.
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