Unemployment
The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the July UER of 4.9%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon. However, the growth rate UERg continues to rise (now at -8.13%) and EMA spread of the UER narrowing (now at -0.18), supporting the trend of the long leading indicator DAGS.
Here is the link to the full update.
The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:
. Long leading indicator DAGS at 24 (last month 35), a level from which it has never recovered in the past .Should this downward trend continue then, according to this indicator, a recession could be expected to begin after June-2017.
Coppock Indicator for the S&P500
The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a buy signal on May 19, 2016. This model is now in the market. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
The TW$ value has fallen, the 6 month moving average is trending downwards .
TIAA Real Estate Account
The 1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 5.95%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund is at an all-time high; the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue. A sell signal is not imminent.
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