Unemployment
The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the April UER of 5.4%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon
Here is the link to the full update.
Coppock Indicator for the S&P500
The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated the last interim buy signal on January 31, 2014 and a sell signal early in January 2015. This model is now out of the market. This indicator is described here.
Trade Weighted USD
A downward trend of the Trade Weighted USD (TW$) could signal the start of possible increases in federal fund rates. Although the TW$ shows a small decline the trend remains upward. Please see our article and Buffett and Welch comment
TIAA Real Estate Account
As of end of April 2015 the 1-year rolling return is 12.35%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund seemingly is retreating from the all-time high, however the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue. A sell signal is not imminent A sell signal is not imminent.
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