BCI Jan 30, 2014

Business Cycle Index:

bciw-fig6.1
The iM Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) is at 162.2 down from last weeks upward revised 164.1.
BCIg fell to 16.3 from last week’s revised 18.0.

This week we introduce the BCIw, a weeks to recession indicator read more

bciw-fig5.1
The off-peak indicator BCIp at 59.0 is down from last week’s 78.1.
BCIw indicates a probable lead time to a recession of 31 weeks, however this signal is graded as statistically remote, thus it is evident that it is too early to make a definitive recession call.

Posted in pmp BCI, reg BCI

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