iM Update – October 10, 2014

Market Signals Summary:

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, The recession indicator COMP is near last week’s revised level, and iM-BCIg is up from last week’s  level. MAC-AU is invested. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, both the gold and silver model are invested.

 

Stock-markets:

The IBH-model is out of the market as shown in Fig. 1. A sell signal was generated 81 weeks ago when the WLIg_shortEMA moved below the WLIg_longEMA. This signal was obviously incorrect and another Sell A signal was generated 15 weeks ago.   The IBH-model is described here and the latest rules can be found here .

 

 

The MAC-US model stays invested. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages. The sell-spread is near last week’s level. A sell signals is not imminent. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.

 

 

The MAC-AU model stays invested. MAC-AU Fig 2.1 shows the spreads of the moving averages of the Australia All Ordinaries Index. The sell-spread is lower than last week’s level. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

In Fig. 3 one can see that COMP is near  last week’s  revised level, and far away from signaling recession. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

Fig. 3.1 shows our recession indicator iM-BCIg, is up from last week’s level.  A recession is not imminent as one can clearly see.

Please also refer to the BCI page