Bond-market:
The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds) and also intermediate duration bonds.
The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 4. The BVR is below last week’s level. According to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.
The Yield Curve:
The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2) shows that the yield curve may has formed a trough, and forward simulations indicate that it may signal a buy STPP next week. . FLAT and STPP are ETNs; STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens. This model confirms the direction of the BVR.
Gold:
The modified Coppock Gold indicator shown in Fig 6. This model generated a new buy signal end March 2019 and is invested in gold.
This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….
The iM GOLD-TIMER Rev-1 sold gold on 12/31/2018 and the model is in cash
Silver:
The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7. This model generated a sell signal early August 2018 and is in cash.
This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver.
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