iM Update* – January 13, 2017

Bond-market:

The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds) and also intermediate duration bonds.

The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 4.  The BVR is below last week’s level. According to the model, only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again.

The Yield Curve:

The yield curve model indicates the trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2) which was rise since September 2016 is seemingly halted for now. A buy STPP signal was generated on 11/7/2016.     FLAT and STPP are ETNs;  STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens.  This model confirms the direction of the BVR.

 

Gold:

The modified Coppock Gold indicator shown in Fig 6. This model generated a new buy signal early November  2016 and is invested in gold.

This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal ……. 

 

 

The iM GOLD-TIMER generated a buy signal on January 9, and thus the model is again invested in gold. This model is now deprecated and the revised performance is shown in Fig6.1a.

This revised indicator is described in the article: The iM Gold-Timer Rev-1

 

The iM GOLD-TIMER Rev-1 generated a buy signal begining December 2016 and thus invested in gold.

 

 

 

 

Silver:

The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7. This model generated a new buy signal late November  2016 and is invested in silver.

This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver.