Market Signals Summary:
Both the IBH and MAC stock market models are invested. The recession indicator COMP is near last week’s level, and iM-BCIg is lower than last week’s level. MAC-AU is invested in the stock market. Noteworthy is that the trend of the sell-spreads for MAC-US, and the MAC-AU, independently indicate that a sell signal may be generated soon in the respective markets. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread appears to be rising, however the model has generated “buy FLAT” signal. Both the gold and silver model are invested.
Stock-markets:The IBH-model is invested in the markets. The IBH model relies mainly on the long and short EMAs of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index’s growth rate. The IBH-model is described here and the latest rules can be found here .
The MAC-US model is still invested. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages. The sell-spread is down from last week’s level and a sell signal may be generated soon. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.
The MAC-AU model is in the market. The sell-spread is lower than last week’s level. A sell signal will only be generated when the sell-spread (red graph) moves from above to below zero, which may be soon.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:Figure 3 shows COMP is up from last week’s level, and far away from signaling recession. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.
Please also refer to the BCI page
A description of this indicator can be found here.