Business Cycle Index:
The iM Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) is at 161.7 marginally up from last weeks revised 162.5.
BCIg fell to 12.8 from last week’s revised 14.1.
Last week we introduce the BCIw, a weeks to recession indicator read more
The derived off peak indicator BCIp at 48.3, which translated to the BCIw as an equivalent 27 weeks possible lead to a recession with a remote probability of a recession occurring. The statistics from previous periods prior to recessions show that even with these downward trending figures it is too early to make a recession call.
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