Update 3-1-13

Summary:

All the stock market models are invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve seems to steepen, and gold and silver models are not invested.
The most significant event was the decline of COMP.

Stock-market:

Fig 2 IBH 3-1-13The IBH-model stays invested.

One can see in Fig 2 that the indicator graphs may be rolling over – this may lead to a basic sell signal in the weeks ahead.

 

 

Fig 3 MAC 3-1-13The MAC-model stays invested.

MAC Fig 3 shows the spreads of the moving averages, both having increased from last week, but the buy-spread appears to be making a peak. The sell spread (red graph) has moved further away from crossing the zero line. MAC is far away from a sell signal.

 

Bond-market:

Fig 7 Bonds 3-1-13The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds).

The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 7. The BVR was a bit higher from last week but the trend is downwards. In the longer term BVR will reach the long-term trendline and long-bond investors will have suffered considerable losses by then.

 

The Yield Curve:

Fig 5 Yield Curve 3-1-13The yield curve model expects the yield curve to steepen.

Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2). The trend is up now as one can clearly see. FLAT and STPP are ETNs. STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens. This model confirms the direction of the BVR.

 

Recession:

COMP 3-1-13COMP has significantly declined from last week, mainly due to the downward revision of its ADS component, but is still far away from signaling recession.

Comp can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 

Gold:

GOLD 3-1-13There is no buy-signal from the modified Coppock Gold indicator.

This model has been out of Gold since Nov-26-2012. Gold would have to make a sustained move to $1700 and higher over the next few weeks for a buy signal according to my projections.  This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….

 

Silver:

SILVER 3-1-13There is no buy-signal from the modified Coppock Silver indicator.

This model has been out of Silver since Apr-25-2011. This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver
 

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