iM Update 9-20-13

Market Signals Summary:

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested.  The recession indicator COMP is higher and iM-BCIg is also higher from last week’s levels.  MAC-AU is also invested.



Fig 1 IBH 9-20-13The IBH-model is out of the market as shown in Fig. 1.  A sell signal was generated 27 weeks ago when the WLIg_shortEMA moved below the WLIg_longEMA.  Currently the WLIg_shortEMA indicator is just below WLIg_longEMA.  If the sell signal was correct then WLIg_shortEMA should move decisively below WLIg_longEMA, which is currently not the case.


Fig 2 MAC 9-20-13The MAC-US model stays invested.  MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages.  The sell-spread is lower from last week’s level, but the buy-spread is higher. It looks as if both spreads have peaked.  A sell signals is not imminent.  The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal



Fig 2.1 MAC Australia 9-20-13The MAC-AU model stays invested.  MAC-AU Fig 2.1 shows the spreads of the moving averages of the Australia All Ordinaries Index.  The sell-spread and the buy-spread are higher from last week’s level.  It appears as if the market is moving sideways, possibly trending higher. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations



Fig 3 BVR 9-20-13The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds) and also intermediate duration bonds.

The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 3.  The BVR is higher from last week’s level, but the overall trend is downwards.  It is possible that bond yields may go lower for a while, reflected by BVR moving higher, but the trend of BVR is lower. Only when BVR turns upward after having been lower than the lower offset-line should one consider long bonds again. In the meantime one can expect bonds to lose more value for some time still.


The Yield Curve:

Fig 4 Yield Curve 9-20-13The yield curve model shows the steepening trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread.    Figure 4 charts (i10 – i2).  The trend is up, as one can see, but it may go flatter for a while.  FLAT and STPP are ETNs.  STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens.  This model confirms the direction of the BVR.



Fig 5 COMP 9-20-13In Fig. 5 one can see that COMP is a higher than last week’s level, and far away from signaling recession.  The higher level is due to the Conf. Bd. LEI, one of its components, having increased by 0.7% from the previous month.

COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.


Fig 5.1 BCIg 9-20-13Fig. 5.1 shows our recession indicator iM-BCIg, higher than last week’s level.  It is possible that BCIg may have peaked in June.   A recession is not imminent as one can clearly see

Please also refer to the BCI page



Fig 6 GOLD 9-20-13There is no buy-signal from the modified Coppock Gold indicator shown in Fig 6.  This model has been out of Gold since Nov-26-2012.

This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal ……. Please also view the technical gold chart from a recent article in Morningstar-Australia.



Fig 7 SILVER 9-20-13The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7 and is currently invested.

This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver. Please also view the technical silver chart from a recent article in Morningstar-Australia.


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