Update 2-22-13

Stock-market:

The IBH-model stays invested.

ECRI reported the WLI at a level of 129.1 and the six months smoothed annualized growth WLIg at +7.6%, both numbers are lower from last week, as shown in Fig 2. One can see that the indicator graphs may be rolling over – this may lead to a basic sell signal in the weeks ahead.

The MAC-model stays invested.

MAC Fig 3 shows the spreads of the moving averages, both having increased from last week, but the buy-spread appears to be making a peak. The sell spread (red graph) has moved further away from crossing the zero line, but may soon also peak.

Bond-market:

The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds).

The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 7. The BVR was not much different from last week but the trend is downwards. In the longer term BVR will reach the long-term trendline and long-bond investors will have suffered considerable losses by then.

The Yield Curve:

The yield curve model expects the yield curve to steepen.

Figure 5 charts (i10 – i2). The trend is up now as one can clearly see. FLAT and STPP are ETNs. STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens. This model confirms the direction of the BVR.

Recession:

COMP is far away from signaling recession.

The updated COMP is at a similar level as last week.  Comp can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

Gold:

There is no buy-signal from the modified Coppock Gold indicator.

This model has been out of Gold since Nov-26-2012. Gold would have to make a sustained move to $1700 and higher over the next few weeks for a buy signal according to my projections.  This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….

Silver:

There is no buy-signal from the modified Coppock Silver indicator.