iM Update 5-17-13

Market Signals Summary:

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve may be steepening again, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is lower from last week’s level. We have added MAC-AU for the Australian market.

Stock-markets:

The IBH model is out of the market as shown in Fig. 1. A sell signal was generated eight weeks ago when the WLIg_shortEMA moved below the WLIg_longEMA. Currently these two indicators are superimposed on top of each other. If the sell signal was correct then WLIg_shortEMA should move decisively below WLIg_longEMA.

The MAC-US model stays invested. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages, both levels higher than last week. A sell signals is not imminent. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.

The MAC-AU model stays invested. MAC-AU Fig 2.1 shows the spreads of the moving averages of the Australia All Ordinaries Index. A sell signals is not imminent. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal. This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations

Bond-market:

The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds) and also intermediate duration bonds.
The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 3. The BVR is lower than last week’s level, with the overall trend downwards. The chart shows the BVR over a longer period in order to depict the recent levels in relation to previous times. Excesses are never permanent, and when BVR will reach the long-term trendline then long-bond investors will have suffered considerable losses.

The Yield Curve:

The yield curve model shows the steepening trend, and seems to be steepening again after the recent interim mini-top. Figure 4 charts (i10 – i2). The trend is still up as one can see. FLAT and STPP are ETNs. STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens. This model confirms the direction of the BVR.

Recession:

In Fig 5 one can see that COMP is lower from last week’s level. This is mainly due to revisions of one of the underlying components. However, It is far away from signaling recession. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this articleThe Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

iM-BCIg has now reached a level which was only exceeded 10.53% of the time since 1969. This means that only 249 weeks out of 2364 weeks had a higher level previously. Anybody still believing that the US economy is in recession is seriously mistaken.

Please also refer to the BCI page

Gold:

There is no buy-signal from the modified Coppock Gold indicator shown in Fig 6. This model has been out of Gold since Nov-26-2012. Gold would have to make a sustained move to $1700 and higher over the next few weeks for a buy signal according to my projections. This seems highly unlikely in view of the recent price decline. This indicator is described inIs it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….

Silver:

There was a buy-signal recently from the modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7. The current price is close to the buy price. This indicator is described inSilver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver