iM Update 8-16-13

Please also see the Best10 weekly update on the [Systems][Best10 Portfolio Management Systems] page.

 

Market Signals Summary:

The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicators COMP is lower and iM-BCIg a bit higher from last week’s levels. MAC-AU is also invested.

 

Stock-markets:

Fig 1 IBH 8-16-13The IBH-model is out of the market as shown in Fig. 1. A sell signal was generated 22 weeks ago when the WLIg_shortEMA moved below the WLIg_longEMA. Currently the WLIg_shortEMA indicator is just below WLIg_longEMA. If the sell signal was correct then WLIg_shortEMA should move decisively below WLIg_longEMA, which is currently not the case.

 
Fig 2 MAC 8-16-13The MAC-US model stays invested. MAC-US Fig 2 shows the spreads of the moving averages. The sell-spread is down from last week’s level, and the buy-spread is also a bit lower. A sell signals is not imminent. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.

 
 
Fig 2.1 MAC Australia 8-16-13The MAC-AU model stays invested. MAC-AU Fig 2.1 shows the spreads of the moving averages of the Australia All Ordinaries Index. The sell-spread and the buy-spread are higher from last week’s level. The market may continue to move sideways. The sell spread (red graph) has to move below the zero line for a sell signal.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations

 

Bond-market:

Fig 3 BVR 8-16-13The BVR-model avoids high beta bonds (long-bonds) and also intermediate duration bonds.
The Bond Value Ratio is shown in Fig 3. The BVR is considerably lower than last week’s level, and the overall trend is downwards. If the BVR continues to decline at such a rate then it may reach the lower offset line sooner than expected. In the meantime, we can expect bonds to lose more value for some time still.

 

The Yield Curve:

Fig 4 Yield Curve 8-16-13The yield curve model shows the steepening trend of the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries yield spread. The change from last week is amazing. 10-year Treasury Note yields have really gone up a lot lately. Figure 4 charts (i10 – i2). The trend is up, as one can see. FLAT and STPP are ETNs. STPP profits from a steepening yield curve and FLAT increases in value when the yield curve flattens. This model confirms the direction of the BVR.

 

 

Recession:

Fig 5 COMP 8-6-13In Fig. 5 one can see that COMP is a bit lower than last week’s level, but far away from signaling recession.

COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.

 
Fig 5.1 BCIg 8-16-13

Fig. 5.1 shows our recession indicator iM-BCIg, a fraction higher than last week’s level. A recession is not imminent as one can clearly see.

Please also refer to the BCI page

 

Gold:

Fig 6 GOLD 8-16-13There is no buy-signal from the modified Coppock Gold indicator shown in Fig 6. This model has been out of Gold since Nov-26-2012. Gold moved higher over the last 3 weeks as anticipated.

Gold moved higher over the last 6 weeks as anticipated.

This indicator is described in Is it Time to Buy Gold Again? – Wait for the buy signal …….

 

Silver:

Fig 7 SILVER 8-16-13The modified Coppock Silver indicator shown in Fig 7 and is currently invested. The current price (Friday’s London fix) is now close to the model’s buy price, and NY spot silver is even higher at $23.43.
This indicator is described in Silver – Better Than Gold: A Modified Coppock Indicator for Silver

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