Positive are the further decreases in the seasonally adjusted insured unemployment, for the week ending May 25 the number was 2,952,000, a decrease of 52,000 from the preceding week’s upward revised level of 3,004,000. Negative is the slight -1.1% downward trend of this week’s 5 day average of the S&P 500.
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This week negative influence on the BCI, namely that the S&P 500 is slightly down and the continued claims of the insured unemployed has risen, could not outweigh the strong gains of the previous weeks, and the moving averages of these elevate the BCI to 155.3 a gain of 0.23% on last week. The BCIg is also up at 20.8 (BCIg is the 6-month smoothed annualized growth of BCI and six added to it) For more information please visit the BCI page
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The BCI keeps on climbing, not only driven by the gains of the S&P 500; the continues unemployment dropped by a massive 112 thousand from last week’s upwards revised figure of 3.024 million to 2.912 million. A further positive economic trend is the quantity of new houses sold, 454 thousand estimated for April, which is up from the upward revised figure of 444, from 411 thousand of March.
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The BCI continues its upward trend to a level of 152.8, with the BCIp on a 100, by past performance, a recession is not in sight.
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The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve may resume its steepening trend, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is little changed from last week’s level.

The BCI continues its upward trend to a level of 152.3 after strong employment reports and an even stronger rally of the S&P500

No sign of an oncoming recession. The BCI climing to a new high of 151.5 after a the gains in the S&P500, outweighing the increase in the continues claims this week. As we have a new high, BCIp is at 100.0