Economic indices, each a combination of a different set of economic data, often signal contradictory states of the economy. Not surprisingly, many prominent analysts relying on these indices have made incorrect forecasts. To aid recession forecasting, we now introduce the BCIw, an index derived from our iMarketSignals’ Business Cycle Index (BCI), calibrated in weeks to recession. Yes, you read this correctly; for example, if the BCIw has a value of 19 it indicates that there is a high probability of a recession starting in 19 weeks.
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Blog Archives
iM’s BCIw: A Weeks to Recession Indicator
iM Update – Jan 24, 2014
The IBH stock market model is out of the market. The MAC stock market model is invested, the bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the yield curve is steepening, the gold model is not invested, but the silver model is invested. The recession indicator COMP is higher from last week’s level, and iM-BCIg is lower from last week’s level. MAC-AU is invested.
Posted in reg
Best10 Jan 21, 2014
Currently the portfolio holds 10 stocks, 5 of them winners, so far held for an average period of 35 days, and showing combined 2.47% average return to 1/21/2014
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Posted in reg bestx
Is there a Best Time of Day to Trade?
As the popularity of investing according to computerized algorithms increases, the question “When is it best to trade?” arises. Each investor has a different answers and opinion when it is best to trade. We approach this subject analytically to find a mathematical generated answer that is void of any emotions.
BCI Jan 23, 2014
The BCI at 162.0 is down 0.7 from last week’s 162.7
The BCIg at 15.8 is down 1.1 from last week’s 16.9
Posted in reg BCI
BCI Jan 16, 2014
The BCI at 162.7 is down 1.2 from last week’s revised 163.9
The BCIg at 16.9 is down 1.3 from last week’s revised 18.2
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Posted in reg BCI
Download Best(SSO-TLT) Statistical Analyzer
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The statistical analysis as presented in iM-Best(SSO-TLT) Switching System was done in a MS Excel Workbook. This workbook can be downloaded here for educational purpose and perusal only.
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Posted in extra
Best(SPY-SH) 1-13-2014
The iM-Best(SPY-SH) model currently holds SPY, so far held for a period of 189 days, and showing 10.69% return to 1/13/2014
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Posted in reg-best-spy
BCI Jan 9, 2014
The BCI at 163,8 is down 0.4 from last week’s revised 164.2
The BCIg at 18.1 is down 1.1 from last week’s revised 19.2
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Posted in reg BCI
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We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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