Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions. The BCI at 185.0 is down from last week’s downwards revised 186.2. No recession is signaled by both the derived indicators; BCIg, expressed to one decimal place at 21.3 is down from last week’s 21.7, and BCIp at 88.7 indicates that, for this business cycle, BCI is slightly down from it’s previous peak.
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Blog Archives
iM’s BCI Does Not Signal a Recession: Update December 11, 2014
Posted in BCI
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update December 5, 2014
A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the October figure of 5.8%, does not signal a recession now.
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Posted in UER
BCI December 4, 2014
The BCI at 186.3 is near last week’s downwards revised 186.2. No recession is signaled by both the derived indicators; BCIg, expressed to one decimal place, is unchanged from last week’s 21.7, and BCIp at 100.0 indicates that, for this business cycle, BCI is at a new high.
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Posted in pmp BCI
iM’s BCI Does Not Signal a Recession: Update December 4, 2014
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions. The BCI at 186.3 is near last week’s downwards revised 186.2. No recession is signaled by both the derived indicators; BCIg, expressed to one decimal place is unchanged from last week’s 21.7, and BCIp at 100.0 indicates that, for this business cycle, BCI is at a new high.
Read more >
Posted in BCI
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