Market Signals Summary:
The MAC-US model is invested. Also, both the “3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500” and the “VMNFX vs. SPY Timer” are invested in the markets. The MAC-AU is also invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession. The bond market model avoids high beta (long) bonds, the trend of the yield spread is indeterminate. The gold and the silver model are invested.
The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is up from last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.
The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P500 has flattened at a level of 15%, seemingly forming a peak. This indicator is invested in the market since 3/23/2016.
The VMNFX vs. SPY Timer signaled an entry into the stock markets on 3/28/2016. For this model to exit the markets the indicator has to fall below the 2% trigger line and then rise above it.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:Figure 3 shows the COMP is up from last week’s level. No recession is indicated. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.
Please also refer to the BCI page
A description of this indicator can be found here.