Monthly Update – November 2015

Unemployment

Fig-8.-11-6-2015The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the October UER of 5.0%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon

Here is the link to the full update.

 

Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-11-6-2015The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated the last interim buy signal on January 31, 2014 and a sell signal early in January 2015.  This model is now out of the market.   This indicator is described here.

 

Trade Weighted USD

USD-11-6-2015A downward trend of the Trade Weighted USD (TW$) could signal the start of possible increases in federal fund rates. The TW$ after an interim decline is recovering and the 6 month moving average trend remains upward.  Please see our article and Buffett and Welch comment

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-10.-11-6-2015The  1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 10.40%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund has retreated from the all-time high; however, the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue.   A sell signal is not imminent.

Read more …

 

 

Posted in month free

Leave a Reply

With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the Terms of Use / Disclaimer