Business Cycle Index:
The iM Business Cycle Indicator (BCI) is at 165.6 up from last week’s upward revised 164.6
BCIg is unchanged from last week’s revised 14.5.
The upward revision in BCI is mainly due to yesterday’s released of New Residential Sales that report a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 468 thousand and the December value was revised upwards from 411 to 427 thousand. With the off-peak indicator BCIp at 87.2 that is up from last weeks revised 77.5 and at this level the BCIw graphic with the tracks to recession is no longer applicable