Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is currently not close to a recession. The indicator pattern is consistent with those from prior in-between recession periods.
Modified S&P500 Coppock
The modified Coppock indicator for the S&P500 has signaled a continuous stock market investment now from May-22-09 onwards only interrupted for three weeks from April-23 to May-14-10. This indicator can only provide buy signals and stays invested until the S&P has gained 38% or for 48 weeks after a buy signal, whichever comes first. If a new buy signal is generated during an investment period, then these criteria apply again from then onwards.
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