iM Update – November 17, 2023

 

Market Signals Summary:

The CAPE-Cycle-ID  has reentered the stock markets,   also  the MAC-US, the S&P 500 Coppock Indicator are invested the Stock Market.  The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500 exited the markets in the first week of September.  The iM-Google Trend Timer enters the stock markets beginning September 2023.The BCI is no longer warning of a recession;  the Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates inverted beginning August 2022; and the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is signalling a recession since November 2022. The Gold Coppock is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is invested in silver.

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-11-17-2023 The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023.

 

 

 

 

Fig-2.2-11-17-2023The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at -10.482% (last week -12.82%),  exited  the markets on  September 7.

 

 

 

Fig-2.3-11-17-2023The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 entered the the US stock markets in the first week February 2023.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Fig-2.1-11-17-2023 The MAC-AU model generated a sell signal end mid October 2022,  and is disinvested from the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1a-11-17-2023   BCIg is not signaling a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.1c-11-17-2023The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator after the August 18, 2022 update signals a recession. The November 18, 2022 update of the Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is signaling that the US economy is/will soon be in a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-11-17-2023The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) inverted beginning August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

Fig-3.3-11-17-2023The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

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