iM Update – September 9, 2022

 

Market Signals Summary:

The Hi-Lo Index of the S&P 500 as well as the MAC-AU reentered the markets.  However, the MAC US, iM-FT Timer as well as the S&P 500 Coppock Indicator remain disinvested from the markets.   The bond market model begins to favor high beta (long) bonds. The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2 and 10 year rates inverted beginning August thus signalling a recession. Also the growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator is sinalling a recession. The Gold Coppock is invested in gold, so is the iM-Gold Timer. The Silver Coppock model is dis-invested in silver.

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-9-9-2022 The MAC-US model exited the US stock markets end April 2022.

 

 

 

 

Fig-2.2-9-9-2022The 3-mo Hi-Lo Index Index of the S&P500 is at 5.88% (last week 5.60%), and has  entered the markets.

 

 

 

Fig-2.3-9-9-2022The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a sell signal end July 2022 and is dis-invested in stocks.   This indicator is described here.

 

 

 

Fig-2.1-9-9-2022 The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end August 2022,  and is invested the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1a-9-9-2022 BCIg does not signal a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.1c-9-9-2022The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator after the August 18 update signals a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-9-9-2022The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) has inverted begin August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

Fig-3.3-9-9-2022The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched into stocks on 6/15/2020.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

Posted in pmp free update
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act: We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers, read more ...
By the mere act of reading this page and navigating this site you acknowledge, agree to, and abide by the Terms of Use / Disclaimer