- The Trade Weighted US Dollar Index has been growing since Q4 2011. Its growth increasing over the last nine months.
- The annual rise in CPI is below 2%, and the US economy remains relatively weak.
- The US Market is attracting foreign capital that is fleeing their local currency devaluation.
- There is no reason for the Fed to increase interest rates under these conditions.
- Interest rates will probably rise only once the dollar reverses its gains.
Blog Archives
There is no reason why the Fed should increase the Federal Funds Rate any time soon – Update April 2015
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index, April 2, 2014
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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