A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the July figure of 5.3%, does not signal a recession now.
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Blog Archives
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update August 7, 2015
No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update August 6, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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07/31/2015: Vanguard Systems
Latest iM-Systems performance tables for the seven systems are updated monthly
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07/31/2015: Vanguard+TIAA Systems
Latest iM-Systems performance tables for the seven systems are updated monthly
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No Recession Is Signaled By iM’s Business Cycle Index: Update July 30, 2015
Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions.
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With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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