• For what is considered to be a lagging indicator of the economy, the unemployment rate provides surprisingly good signals for the beginning and end of recessions.
• This model, backtested to 1948, reliably provided recession signals.
• The model, updated with the March 2020  rate of 4.4%, does now signal a recession.

A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginning and end of recessions (Appendix B charts the UER recession indicator for the period 1948 to 2015).
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