SPY market timer · demonstration

Preview of SPY-BIL Technical Market Timer with Daily Signals being developed

1 · Settings

When out of the market Predictive service Next-day price

2 · Statistics model vs buy-and-hold of the selected ETF

3 · Charts

Drag across a chart to zoom · double-click to show all
Bull–bear
Buy–sell
State · 1 = in SPY, 0 = out
Growth of 1 · log scale · buy-and-hold state, BIL at 0 state, selected at 0
Drawdown from last peak · model SPY buy-and-hold
Total-return price of the selected ETF · adjusted for dividends · log scale

4 · Trade history

All figures are hypothetical results of applying the stated rules to historical data. They do not represent actual trading and exclude costs, slippage and taxes. With the predictive service on, trades are executed at the close of the day on which the published switching price is crossed; an SMS alert is sent the evening before when that price lies within 2.5% of the close, and a signal that arrives without such an alert is traded at the next day's close; with it off, on the next day at the selected price: close, open, (high + low)/2 or (open + high + low + close)/4. Where simulated history has no open, high or low, the previous close or the mean of the previous and current close is used. BIL before May 30, 2007 is simulated from US Treasury 3-month yields; SHY, IEF and TLT before Jul 26, 2002 from US Treasury par yields; GLD before Nov 18, 2004 uses historical index data. Past performance, actual or simulated, does not guarantee future results. This page describes a mathematical model and is not investment advice.