2025 | iMarketSignals

The S&P 500 averaged 6,736 for October 2025, 2,604 points above its long-term trend of 4,132, implying a 39% decline to reach the trend and signifying a valuation substantially above historic norm.
The long-term trend indicates a forward 10-year annualized real return of only 1.4%, while the CAPE-MA35 methodology derived 10-year annualized real return is also modest at about 4.3%, indicating limited long-term upside.
The short-term outlook indicated by CAPE-MA35 Neutral phase has historically yielded low short-term returns.