October | 2025 | iMarketSignals

This study presents a rules-based ETF allocation model that uses the CAPE-MA35 ratio—the Shiller CAPE divided by its 35-year moving average—to identify distinct market phases and dynamically adjust portfolio exposure.
The model defines four primary phases—Growth, Defensive, Uptrend, and Downtrend—based on the trend and relative valuation of CAPE-MA35. ETF allocations are adjusted monthly in response to these phases.