May | 2022 | iMarketSignals

Investment risk can be reduced by a multi-model market timer whose many components use different and uncorrelated financial and economic data, including inflation.
This model seeks to determine effective asset allocation for risk-on and risk-off periods for equities considering the effect of inflation.
Four risk scenarios are possible: risk-on & normal-inflation, risk-on & high-inflation, risk-off & normal-inflation, and risk-off & high-inflation. Different ETF groups apply to each risk scenario.
From 2000 to 2022, switching accordingly between risk-related ETF groups would have produced an annualized return of about 39% versus 6.5% for buy and hold SPY.