2021 | iMarketSignals

The average of S&P 500 for December 2021 was 4675 (previous month 4670). This is 2155 points higher than the long-term trend value of 2520.
The current percentage difference of S&P 500 level relative to the current long-term trend level is 85%, a value not exceeded in the recent past since 2001.
The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is at a level of 38.4. That is 51% higher than its 35-year moving average (MA35), currently at 25.4.
The CAPE-MA35 ratio is 1.51, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of about 3.8%. Should the CAPE-MA35 ratio increase further, then 10-year forward returns will be even lower.
The historic long-term trend indicates a 10-year forward real annualized return of only 0.2%, and the current condition of overvaluation suggest zero returns by the end of 2028.