April | 2020 | iMarketSignals

The average of S&P500 for March-2020 was 2652. A 12% decline, or 325 point drop, would bring it to 2327, the end of March level of the long-term trend line.
A recession appears to be imminent. Stocks could lose up to 50% if the S&P reaches the lower prediction band line of the long-term trend.
If the percentage decline matches the loss during 2009-09 recession then the S&P500 could reach a low of 1560, a decline of about 35% from the current value.
The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio (CAPE) is at a level of 24.5, almost identical to the 35-year moving average (MA35) of the CAPE of 24.3.
The CAPE-MA35 ratio is 1.01, forecasting a 10-year annualized real return of 7.9%. Should the CAPE-MA35 ratio decline further then 10-year forward returns will be higher.