February | 2018 | iMarketSignals

Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be overvalued.
The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio P/E10 is at high level of 33.5 (and P/E5 of 28.0), and a market correction is possible.
Similar conditions for the P/E5, and S&P-real’s position relative to the long-time trend, were observed only 3-times in the past: in 1937, 1998 and 2006.
The historic trend suggests a total probable real loss of about 15% over the next two years.
Analysts’ long-term forecasts of stock returns made 7 years ago appear to have been unrealistically low.