September | 2016 | iMarketSignals

If the unemployment rate is higher than three months ago the model exits the stock market and enters the bond market, and re-enters the market when the unemployment rate is equal or lower than where it was three months ago.
From 2001 to 2016 switching between bonds and stocks provided significant benefits. This strategy would have produced an average annual return of 13.0% versus only 5.2% for buy&hold stocks.
Using long-term data from 1973 to 2016 for stocks and bonds confirms the unemployment rate (UNEMP) as a profitable stock market timer.