- Based on its historic trend, the stock market appears to be marginally overvalued.
- The historic trend suggests a probable real gain of about 20% over the next five years.
- Analysts’ long-term forecasts of stock returns made 4 years ago appear to have been unrealistically low.
- The Shiller Cyclically Adjusted Price to Earnings Ratio is relatively high (but not extremely high), and a market correction is possible.
Monthly Archives: January 2016
Is the Stock Market Overvalued? — Update Dec-2015 — Estimating Returns to 2020 and Beyond
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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