A reliable source for recession forecasting is the unemployment rate, which can provide signals for the beginnings and ends of recessions. The unemployment rate model (article link), updated with the April figure of 5.4%, does not signal a recession now.
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Monthly Archives: May 2015
The Unemployment Rate is Not Signaling a Recession: Update May 8, 2015
With reference to Section 202(a)(11)(D) of the Investment Advisers Act:
We are Engineers and not Investment Advisers,
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