Yearly Archives: 2014

iM’s BCI Does Not Signal a Recession: Update December 25 2014

Knowing when the U.S. Economy is heading for recession is paramount for successful investment decisions. Our weekly Business Cycle Index (BCI) would have provided early reliably warnings for the past seven recessions. The BCI  at 184.9 is up from last week’s downwards revised 183.9. No recession is signaled by both the derived indicators; BCIg, expressed to one decimal place at 19.1 is down from  last week’s 19.1, and BCIp at 92.8  indicates that, for this business cycle, BCI is slightly down from its previous peak.
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