Economic indices, each a combination of a different set of economic data, often signal contradictory states of the economy.   Not surprisingly, many prominent analysts relying on these indices have made incorrect forecasts.  To aid recession forecasting, we now introduce the BCIw, an index derived from our iMarketSignals’ Business Cycle Index (BCI), calibrated in weeks to recession. Yes, you read this correctly; for example, if the BCIw has a value of 19 it indicates that there is a high probability of a recession starting in 19 weeks.
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