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Gold: A Coppock Buy Signal for March 2014

The modified Coppock indicator will produce a buy signal for Gold within a few weeks. This is the result of various projections using random numbers between -$20 and +$30 and -$30 and +$20 for the weekly change of the gold price, representing upward- and downward trends for the metal’s price, respectively.
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Gold: When Will the Next Buy Signal Emerge?

Gold may have recently bottomed and is currently in backwardation, possibly an indication that the price could increase in the months ahead.  Since nobody knows the future let us assume that the gold price could change between -$20 and +$30 each week, this representing an upward price trend for the metal.  Using random numbers between those limits for each weekly change in price, then one can construct numerous future scenarios of the gold price.  Also one can use the modified Coppock indicator to identify the next buy signal based on these projections.
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Gold: How Much Lower Will it Go?

Gold has declined substantially and many commentators believe that the price will go much lower. But will it? The chart below shows the gold price plotted on a semi-log scale from 1968 to 2013, and the year-on-year percentage change of the price expressed in standard deviation terms for a rolling 10-year sample period. What strikes one is that the recent decline is not particularly spectacular in comparison to previous declines, and that the y-o-y percentage change of the price is now minus 2.67 standard deviations (sigma) away from the mean, the lowest that it ever got.
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Silver outshines gold – A buy Signal

The Coppock for silver generated a buy signal on Friday April 12, 2013, exactly 2 years after the sell signal.The long-time average annual return from silver based on the signals from a modified Coppock indicator exceeded those from gold by a considerable margin, 19.7% for silver versus 14.9% for gold.

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Silver outshines gold

The long-time average annual return from silver based on the signals from a modified Coppock indicator exceeded those from gold by a considerable margin, 19.7% for silver versus 14.9% for gold.

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