iM Vanguard/TIAA-CREF Systems

A prudent investor has his assets allocated in both bonds and stocks. This conservative strategy is found in the Vanguard LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund (VSMGX) that invests about 40% in bonds and 60% in stocks.  Instead of a static bond/stock ratio, performance can be increased by changing this ratio in accord to the market. E.g. during up-market periods: 60% stocks and 40% bonds and during down-market periods: 40% stocks and 60% bonds. The required market timing is generated by our MAC-US.

4/30/2016: Vanguard Systems

Latest iM-Systems performance tables for the seven systems are updated monthly

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Timing the TIAA Real Estate Account

  • In order to maximize returns one has to know when to enter and exit the TIAA Real Estate Account.
  • Our analysis shows that a firm sell signal arises when its 1-year rolling return moves below 0%.
  • A subsequent buy signal would be given when its 1-year rolling return moves from below to above 0%.

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Vanguard Funds With Dynamic Asset Allocation: Three iM-Vanguard Systems

  • iM-Vanguard Systems use a combination of Vanguard bond- and stock-funds, and switch assets according to stock-market climate.
  • Backtests show that models using index funds produce better returns when a dynamic asset allocation strategy is employed (System1) than buy-and-hold.
  • Higher returns can be obtained from actively managed Vanguard funds with dynamic asset allocation (System2 and System3). System3 uses only two stock funds and one intermediate-term bond fund.

The dynamic asset allocation strategy requires that during up-market periods more money is allocated to stock funds than bond funds, and during down-market periods more money is allocated to bond funds than stock funds.
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Getting the Most from TIAA-CREF’s Variable Annuity Accounts

A previous study found that a dynamic asset allocation strategy with Vanguard index funds produced better returns than models with static asset allocations. Changing asset allocation according to stock-market climate produced much higher returns with less risk. TIAA-CREF’s variable annuity accounts can similarly be used to improve returns for participants. Results for three models with dynamic asset allocation are provided whose performance and risk measurements are all better than those of the variable annuity accounts alone, or static combinations of those accounts.
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Vanguard Funds With Dynamic Asset Allocation: Which is the Asset Allocation “that’s right for your situation”?

Performance and risk measures are given for six iM(MAC-Vang) models with various asset allocations which use a combination of Vanguard bond- and stock-funds, and switch assets according to stock-market climate.

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Vanguard’s Actively Managed Funds With Dynamic Asset Allocation: The Best Bet For High Returns

In continuation of our previous article “How Good are Vanguard’s LifeStrategy Funds? Much Better Returns From Vanguard Funds with iM’s (MAC-Vang)20/80” we show that exceptionally high returns can be obtained from Vanguard funds, when a dynamic asset allocation strategy is employed, and actively managed funds instead of index funds are used. Using a combination of bond-, stock-, and sector-funds in the model, and switching asset allocation according to stock-market climate, provided an annualized average return of over 15% for the backtest period Jan-2000 to Jul-2014.

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How Good are Vanguard’s LifeStrategy Funds? Much Better Returns From Vanguard Funds with iM’s (MAC-Vang)20/80

“Studies have shown that your asset allocation has a bigger impact on your long-term returns than any specific fund you pick. So why not pick a Vanguard LifeStrategy Fund that has asset allocation built in?” This is the opening statement on a Vanguard web-page, which also lists other potential benefits of investing in such a fund. The historic performance of the LifeStrategy Moderate Growth Fund was analyzed from Jan-2000 onward, and it is very clear from the analysis that this was a high risk investment with low returns. An alternative investment model with Vanguard funds is proposed which would have produced much higher returns with less risk.

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Is the TIAA Real Estate Account about to Roll Over?

The TIAA Real Estate Account, despite showing good returns over the last four years, is a typical example of a fund with disappointing performance over the longer term. In order to maximize one’s returns one has to know when to enter and exit the fund. My analysis shows that TIAA Real Estate may peak in the second half of 2014 which would provide an early indication to reduce one’s exposure. A firm sell signal would arise when its 1-year rolling return moves below 0%.

Posted in blogs, featured, Vanguard/TIAA CREF Blogs | Tagged | 4 Comments
    5 comments on “iM Vanguard/TIAA-CREF Systems
    1. dpank says:

      Could you confirm and check the Vanguard YTD for Active Managed? Also VSMGX, this fund returned 7.07% vs 5.24% on the Dec 31 2014 numbers

      Thanks
      David

    2. geovrba says:

      We download the dividend adjusted values from YahooFinance.
      For VSMGX the values displayed on Jan-7-2015:
      12-31-2013 value = 22.88
      12-31-2014 value = 24.08
      which calculates as a gain of 5.24%
      I see that the end of December dividend and capital gains ($0.418) is not included in the Yahoo figures. Why they have not yet included them I don’t know. With this dividend VSMGX returned 7.07% for the year.

      We will revise the table once YahooFinance is updated to include end of December dividends. All Vanguard funds will be affected by this.

      Thank you for bringing this inconsistency to our attention.

    3. dpank says:

      Thanks, Updates should also apply to the IM Managed portfolios. My back test has the 20/80 at 7.86% for 2014 Does that seem accurate?

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