Market Signals Summary:
The MAC-US model is invested.The MAC-AU is also invested. The recession indicators COMP and iM-BCIg do not signal a recession.
The MAC-US model generated a buy-signal 4/5/2016 and thus is invested in the stock-markets. The sell-spread (red graph) is below last week’s level and has to fall below zero to signal a sell.
This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.
Recession:Figure 3 shows the COMP below last week’s revised level. No recession is indicated. COMP can be used for stock market exit timing as discussed in this article The Use of Recession Indicators in Stock Market Timing.
Please also refer to the BCI page
The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) is below previous week’s level and far away from signalling a recession. A downward trend of the FRR2-10 seems to have set in again.
A description of this indicator can be found here.