Monthly Update – June 2016

Unemployment

Fig-8.-6-3-2016The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the May UER of 4.7%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon

Here is the link to the full update.

 

 

The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread:

DAGS-6-3-2016 The Dynamic Linearly Detrended Enhanced Aggregate Spread (DAGS) is a long leading recession indicator, (article link); the latest DAGS level of 61 (last month 70) is above the recession warning trigger line, indicating that it is highly unlikely for a recession to start during the next 9 months.

 

 

Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-6-3-2016The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated a buy signal on May 19, 2016.  This model is now in the market.   This indicator is described here.

 

Trade Weighted USD

USD-6-3-2016 The TW$ value has fallen,  halting for now, the upward trend of the 6 month moving average .

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-10.-6-3-2016The  1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 6.51%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund is at an all-time high;  the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue.   A sell signal is not imminent.

Read more …

 

 

 

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