Monthly Update – February 2016

Unemployment

Fig-8.-2-5-2016The unemployment rate recession model (article link), has been updated with the January UER of 4.9%. Based on the historic patterns of the unemployment rate indicators prior to recessions one can reasonably conclude that the U.S. economy is not likely to go into recession anytime soon

Here is the link to the full update.

 

 

Coppock Indicator for the S&P500

Fig-9.-2-5-2016The Coppock indicator for the S&P500 generated the last interim buy signal on January 31, 2014 and a sell signal early in January 2015.  This model is now out of the market.   This indicator is described here.

 

Trade Weighted USD

USD-2-5-2016 The TW$ after an interim decline is recovering and the 6 month moving average trend remains upward. 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

Fig-10.-2-5-2016The  1-year rolling return for the end of last month is 7.12%. The Vanguard REIT Index Fund has retreated from the all-time high; however, the good positive returns of TIAA Real Estate Account are expected to continue.   A sell signal is not imminent.

Read more …

 

 

 

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