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Friday’s Weekly Update
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March 24,  2024

iM-Best Holdings

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March 19, 2024

Performance-wk-3-19-2024 Performance-mth-3-19-2024 Out of sample performance summary of our models for the past 1, 2, 4 and 13 week periods. The active active return indicates how the models over- or underperformed the benchmark ETF SPY. Also the YTD, and the 1-, 3-, 5- and 10-year annualized returns are shown in the second table
RequireGold
iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.4%, and for the last 12 months is 6.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Inflation Attuned Multi-Model Market Timer gained -0.38% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 3/24/2017 would have grown to $133,138,220 which includes $44,178 cash and excludes $2,824,738 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer: The model’s performance YTD is 14.3%, and for the last 12 months is 7.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 20.1% and 9.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Conference Board LEIg Timer gained -0.06% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 4/5/2017 would have grown to $546,846 which includes $1,558 cash and excludes $763 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 60:40 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.0%, and for the last 12 months is 13.1%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 4.2% and 19.5% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -0.91% at a time when SPY gained -0.12%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/16/2015 would have grown to $159,619 which includes -$165 cash and excludes $3,876 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 3.7%, and for the last 12 months is 15.0%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 4.2% and 19.5% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 70:30 | 20:80 gained -0.91% at a time when SPY gained -0.12%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/15/2015 would have grown to $166,310 which includes -$254 cash and excludes $4,076 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 – 2017: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.4%, and for the last 12 months is 16.9%. Over the same period the benchmark E60B40 performance was 4.2% and 19.5% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-FlipSaver 80:20 | 20:80 gained -0.91% at a time when SPY gained -0.12%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2017 would have grown to $172,949 which includes -$162 cash and excludes $4,268 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold18-1.5HedgeFundSelect-3-19-2024
iM-5HedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 544.49% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-5HedgeFundSelect gained 0.25% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $161,123 which includes $4,953 cash and excludes $2,285 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold10-1.iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect-3-19-2024
iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 395.82% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-10LargeHedgeFundSelect gained 2.74% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $25,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $123,955 which includes $76 cash and excludes $1,456 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold38-1.iM-Top5QQQSelect-3-19-2024
iM-Top5(QQQ)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 884.98% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(QQQ)Select gained -1.40% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $984,976 which includes $1,268 cash and excludes $11,552 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver37-1.iM-Top5XLBSelect-3-19-2024
iM-Top5(XLB)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 207.29% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLB)Select gained 0.39% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $307,290 which includes $1,234 cash and excludes $12,380 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver35-1.iM-Top5XLISelect-3-19-2024
iM-Top5(XLI)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 396.55% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLI)Select gained 0.82% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $496,546 which includes $1,192 cash and excludes $6,567 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver27-1.iM-Top5XLKSelect-3-19-2024
iM-Top5(XLK)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 615.50% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLK)Select gained -1.39% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $715,500 which includes $1,156 cash and excludes $2,149 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver28-1.iM-Top5XLPSelect-3-19-2024
iM-Top5(XLP)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 215.76% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLP)Select gained 0.49% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $315,761 which includes $2,253 cash and excludes $2,179 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver33-1.iM-Top5XLVSelect-3-19-2024
iM-Top5(XLV)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 338.30% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLV)Select gained -1.15% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $438,302 which includes $5,874 cash and excludes $12,656 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver34-1.iM-Top5XLUSelect-3-19-2024
iM-Top5(XLU)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 127.61% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLU)Select gained -0.99% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $227,610 which includes $1,336 cash and excludes $13,339 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver36-1.iM-Top5XLYSelect-3-19-2024
iM-Top5(XLY)Select: Since inception, on 1/5/2016, the model gained 283.90% while the benchmark SPY gained 190.56% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Top5(XLY)Select gained 0.56% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/5/2016 would have grown to $383,898 which includes $1,146 cash and excludes $6,175 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) : Since inception, on 11/17/2020, the model gained 61.66% while the benchmark SPY gained 50.83% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Seasonal Super-Sectors (Top5 combo) gained 0.15% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 11/17/2020 would have grown to $161,663 which includes $3,127 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 6.4%, and for the last 12 months is 24.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Dividend Growth Portfolio gained 2.06% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $467,042 which includes $2,053 cash and excludes $11,129 spent on fees and slippage.
iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -16.3%, and for the last 12 months is -17.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Gold Momentum Timer (AU, NEM, SBSW) gained -2.31% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $7,560 which includes $129,694 cash and excludes Gain to date spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.2%, and for the last 12 months is 10.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.62% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $290,385 which includes $1,132 cash and excludes $1,452 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best(SPY-SH).R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.3%, and for the last 12 months is -5.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively.. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/2/2009 would have grown to $62,418 which includes -$151 cash and excludes $2,553 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Combo3.R1: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.4%, and for the last 12 months is 1.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Combo3.R1 gained -0.34% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 2/3/2014 would have grown to $190,626 which includes $1 cash and excludes $8,232 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver8-1.VDIGXtrade-3-19-2024
iM-Best10(VDIGX)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 7.4%, and for the last 12 months is 23.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Since inception, on 7/1/2014, the model gained 236.35% while the benchmark SPY gained 211.90% and VDIGX gained 159.71% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best10(VDIGX) gained 0.82% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 7/1/2014 would have grown to $336,348 which includes $894 cash and excludes $4,856 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 2.9%, and for the last 12 months is 19.1%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM 6-Stock Capital Strength Portfolio gained 0.88% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 10/28/2016 would have grown to $263,710 which includes $43,401 cash and excludes $3,173 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold7-1.USMVtrade-3-19-2024
iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.6%, and for the last 12 months is 17.0%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Since inception, on 6/30/2014, the model gained 203.37% while the benchmark SPY gained 211.90% and the ETF USMV gained 165.21% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)-Trader gained -0.12% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2014 would have grown to $303,367 which includes $1,104 cash and excludes $8,004 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold13-1.MinVolUSMVInv-3-19-2024
iM-Min Volatility(USMV) Investor (Tax Efficient): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 10.6%, and for the last 12 months is 39.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Since inception, on 1/3/2013, the model gained 843.57% while the benchmark SPY gained 330.55% and the ETF USMV gained 330.55% over the same period. Over the previous week the market value of iM-Best12(USMV)Q1 gained -0.11% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/3/2013 would have grown to $943,570 which includes $717 cash and excludes $9,270 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond): The model’s out of sample performance YTD is -0.7%, and for the last 12 months is -1.4%. Over the same period the benchmark BND performance was -1.6% and 0.8% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Bond Market Trader (High-Yield Bond or 10-yr Treasury Bond) gained -1.65% at a time when BND gained -1.24%. A starting capital of $10,000 at inception on 1/3/2000 would have grown to $136,324 which includes $130 cash and excludes $2,613 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-ModSum/YieldCurve Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 8.2%, and for the last 12 months is 10.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of iM-PortSum/YieldCurve Timer gained 0.62% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 1/1/2016 would have grown to $290,385 which includes $1,132 cash and excludes $1,452 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.6%, and for the last 12 months is 12.7%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best2 MC-Score ETF System gained 0.27% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $159,364 which includes $511 cash and excludes $4,298 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireSilver
iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 0.8%, and for the last 12 months is 10.3%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Best4 MC-Score Vanguard System gained -0.78% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $163,401 which includes $459 cash and excludes $00 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 5.4%, and for the last 12 months is 16.6%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite (SPY-IEF) Timer gained -1.65% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $198,861 which includes -$98 cash and excludes $6,532 spent on fees and slippage.
RequireGold
iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer: The model’s out of sample performance YTD is 4.6%, and for the last 12 months is 8.9%. Over the same period the benchmark SPY performance was 8.2% and 33.4% respectively. Over the previous week the market value of the iM-Composite(Gold-Stocks-Bond) Timer gained -0.97% at a time when SPY gained 0.62%. A starting capital of $100,000 at inception on 6/30/2016 would have grown to $203,531 which includes $36 cash and excludes $9,190 spent on fees and slippage.



March 21, 2024

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

BCI-3-21-2024 BCIw-3-21-2024   BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.

 

 



March 22, 2024

Stock-markets:

Fig-2.-3-22-2024 The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023.

 

 

 

 

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To view this premium content requires membership category: Bronze or higher. However, it can be freely viewed after 04-19-2024 16:00 (New York), or please login or register
Fig-2.1-3-22-2024 The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end  November 2023,  and is invested from the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

Fig-3.1a-3-22-2024   BCIg is not signaling a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.1c-3-22-2024The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.

 

 

 

Fig-3.2-3-22-2024The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) inverted beginning August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

Fig-3.3-3-22-2024The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.



March 22, 2024

Bond-market:

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The Yield Curve:

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Silver:

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iM Sytems, Performance Reports

March 8, 2024

 iM-Best Systems Performance (R2G and others)

Performance-mth-3-8-2024Performance comparison of the iM-Best  models hosted on P123 and on iMarketSignals.

 

 

iM-FlipSavers

Fig-fs.-3-8-2024 Performance graphs for iM-FlipSavers

 

 

 

iM-SuperTimer

im3mo-st-3-8-2024 Performance graphs for iM-3mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

im1mo-st-3-8-2024 Performance graphs for iM-1mo-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 

im1wk-st-3-8-2024 Performance graphs for iM-1wk-SuperTimer(SPY-IEF)

 

 

 



Monthly Updates

March 8, 2024

Unemployment

Fig-8.-3-8-2024The 3/8/2024 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the February 2024 unemployment rate remains unchanged at 3.9%. Our UER model does not signal a recession.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig-9a-3-8-2024Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

Fig-9b-3-8-2024The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.8% (previous month 6.1%) with a 95% confidence interval 4.4% to 7.2% (4.6% to 7.5% ). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate Fig-9c-3-8-2024We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

Fig-10-3-8-2024The iM-GT Timer, based on Google Search Trends volume indicator entered the stock markets beginning September 2023. This indicator is described here.

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

USD-3-8-2024 Will be updated later, the weekly FRED data series we used was discontinued and replacement series is daily and runs from 2015. We need to adapt our software and graphics first.

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

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