Home Page Template Test

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

   BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.

 

 

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023.

 

 

 

 

The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end  November 2023,  and is invested from the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

   BCIg is not signaling a recession.

 

 

 

The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.

 

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) inverted beginning August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

Unemployment

The 4/5/2024 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the March 2024 unemployment rate of  3.8% down 0.1% from last month. Our UER model does not signal a recession.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.6% (previous month 5.8%) with a 95% confidence interval 4.2% to 7.0% (4.4% to 7.2% ). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

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iM-GT Timer

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account

 

 

 

 

 

     

April 14,  2024

iM-Best Holdings

Bond-market:

The Yield Curve:

 

 

 

Silver:

     

April 14,  2024

iM-Best Holdings

Stock-markets:

The MAC-US model invested the US stock markets in first week of February 2023.

 

 

 

 

The MAC-AU model generated a buy signal end  November 2023,  and is invested from the Australian stock market.

This model and its application is described in MAC-Australia: A Moving Average Crossover System for Superannuation Asset Allocations.

 

Recession:

 

   BCIg is not signaling a recession.

 

 

 

The growth of the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Indicator does not signal a recession.

 

 

 

The Forward Rate Ratio between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields (FRR2-10) inverted beginning August 2022 and is signalling a recession — the average lead time of this signal is 14 months.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

 

 

The iM-Low Frequency Timer switched to bonds on 9/26/2022.

A description of this indicator can be found here.

Bond-market:

The Yield Curve:

 

 

 

Silver:

 

iM-Business Cycle Index

   BCIw is not signaling a recession, nor does the BCIg.

 

 

Unemployment

The 4/5/2024 BLS Employment Situation Report shows that the March 2024 unemployment rate of  3.8% down 0.1% from last month. Our UER model does not signal a recession.

 

CAPE-Cycle-ID

Fig 9a depicts the CAPE-Cycle-ID and the year-on-year rate-of-change of the Shiller CAPE;  the level switched from -2 to 0 end of June 2023 generating a buy  signal. This indicator now invested in the markets. This indicator is described here.

To avoid the bear market, exit stocks when the spread between the 5-month and 25-month moving averages of S&P-real becomes negative and simultaneously the CAPE-Cycle-ID score is 0 or -2. (read more)

 

Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns

The estimated forward 10‐year annualized real return is 5.6% (previous month 5.8%) with a 95% confidence interval 4.2% to 7.0% (4.4% to 7.2% ). Also refer to the  Realized Forward 10-Year Returns vs. Inflation Rate We may be in a rising inflation period with a falling CAPE-MA35 ratio similar to 1964-1973. This implies very low or negative 10 year forward annualized real returns, much lower than the returns indicated by regression analysis shown in the Estimated Forward 10-Year Returns.

.

 

iM-GT Timer

 

 

Trade Weighted USD

 

 

 

TIAA Real Estate Account