Gold: A Coppock Buy Signal for March 2014

The modified Coppock indicator will produce a buy signal for Gold within a few weeks. This is the result of various projections using random numbers between -$20 and +$30 and -$30 and +$20 for the weekly change of the gold price, representing upward- and downward trends for the metal’s price, respectively.

In this August 2012 article an analysis showed that one could expect a Coppock buy signal possibly as early as December 2013, but not much later than March 2014. The most recent projection now shows that with high probability a buy signal will emerge by the end of March 2014, as shown in Figure 1 below, and that the gold price could approach $1,600 by the end of 2014 assuming an upward trend for the gold price.

fig1-2-17-14(click to enlarge)

Additionally, the iM-Best Gold Timer model has generated a buy signal at the end of December-2013 after being almost three years out of Gold.  The model uses the SPDR® Gold Shares ETF: GLD, and the economic indicators Federal Funds Rate, 10-year Treasury Note yield, and the S&P500 Estimated Earnings Yield. The benchmark is the Specialty Index SP1500 Gold, representing the gold miners in the S&P1500.  The ETF GLD has already gained about 10% since the date of the buy signal to the middle of February-2014.

Using the Portfolio123 platform the iM-Best Gold Timer  (click for more details) was backtested from Jan-2-2000, as this was the first full year when the algorithm had access to all the required economic indicators from the database of the web-based simulation platform where the backtest was performed.  The timing algorithm was partly based on my research reported in this article.


There were three buy signals:  2/20/2001, 5/11/2009 and 12/30/2013.  An interesting observation is that the three buy signals always occurred shortly after the normalized benchmark index (blue graph) bottomed near 100, as can be seen from the chart above.

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7 comments on “Gold: A Coppock Buy Signal for March 2014
  1. roger says:

    Where can I find the gold timer model listed above?

    • geovrba says:

      Click on (click for more details) in the sentence: Using the Portfolio123 platform the iM-Best Gold Timer (click for more details)……… which appear just above the chart of the Gold Timer.

  2. houstonn says:

    Have you tried a longer testing period on the Gold Timer?

    I ran the book sim for Combo3 plus Gold Timer on P123, the annualized return is 28.86% , max drawdown -9.61% and sortino of 2.43!
    Maybe it’s time for combo4?

    • geovrba says:

      We are trying to get relevant data for a longer period. P123 has data only from March 1999 onwards. For a definitive gold model one needs a longer backtest period. So for the time being the Coppock Gold seems to be a better bet.

  3. macor8 says:

    Has the Coppock indicator officially produced a buy signal now that March 2014 is over. I read in your article that the buy signal would come at the latest in March 2014.

  4. TDCARLSON says:

    Georg, was curious, have you ever worked on a Coppock indicator or other timing vehicle for Crude Oil?

    –Tom C

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